Wednesday, December 04, 2013

To playoff or not to playoff

            Being that this year marks then end of the BCS (bowl championship series) for all FBS schools, I thought it might be a good idea to reflect over the good, the bad, and the ugly of it all. Most people believe that the 4 team playoff that will be instituted next year, will be systematically and ethically better than the BCS system. But is that necessarily true? In my amateur opinion, I think the 4 team playoff will end up being problematic, just like the BCS.

               Can anyone remember the system before the BCS? It was known as the bowl coalition pairings system. A system by which a series of bowl games, usually played by top 10 teams, would determine which team was the best. The system was largely effective. My only problem is the #1 very rarely played #2. That was the promise of the BCS system. It was designed to have the best two teams in D1 football play each other. But the BCS took the autonomy away from the pollsters, and put it in the hands of mathematicians who designed a formula based on strength of schedule, poll position, and win/loss record to determine which two teams “deserved” to play in the BCS championship.

              A lot of pundits and average joe bullshiters like myself believe the system was flawed because the best two teams didn’t end up playing each other. The most infamous of these cases coming from the 2004 undefeated Auburn team which was not placed in the national championship. Boise State in 2006 and 2009 was undefeated but completed ignored by the BCS formula. The 2008 Utah Utes defeated a very strong Alabama team to go undefeated. If perfection isn’t a prerequisite to play for the highest honor in college football, what is?

             The Southeastern Conference has dominated college football for the past 7 years. A representative from that conference has been in the national championship game and won in 7 years in a row. In that time, the SEC as a whole has took on an almost monopoly with top tier high school talent. With that being said, the conference is flourishing at an astronomical rate. In the initial AP poll released at the beginning of the season, 6 out of 14 SEC teams were ranked in the top 25. As of today, 7 teams are ranked in the top 25 and another school, Vanderbilt, is on the cusp of being ranked.

              My contention is this; even with the 4 team playoff, the SEC conference could still have a virtual lock on the playoff with 2 and maybe even 3 teams in the playoff. Is this fair? What about the other conferences like the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, and the severely underrated MAC? I understand the SEC has been hailed as the premier conference in college football and a factory for the NFL, but I think that stigma might be a little overhyped. Every conference has talent. And most schools within the top 10 in the AP/coaches poll have an abundance of talent on both sides of the ball.

         This year, Northern Illinois, with wins over Big 10 opponents each of the past two seasons will probably be shunned again. Their program is by far the best one in the state of Illinois, and that includes U of I and Northwestern. I think they are worthy to make a playoff game. But because they play in the MAC, which has rendered NFL all-pro talent very recently, they are seen as an inferior “perfect” team.

           To make matters worse, The Ohio State University, who has undefeated regular seasons each of the past two seasons is currently #2 in the BCS standings. And their resume is barely stronger than NIU’s. Who have they beaten that warrants their position? The University of Wisconsin is their greatest victory and it was a narrow one. And Wisconsin lost 3 regular season games. Not a bad season, but nothing that would be considered special. Ohio State’s regular season finale against Michigan could have dashed their hopes if a failed 2 point conversion would have found its home. Moreover, my alma mater the University of Illinois scored 35 points against the much vaunted Buckeyes. The same Illini team who has won a grand total of one conference game in the last two seasons. So, the BCS considers Ohio State the 2nd best team in the land and they allow one of the worse teams in college football to remain competitive with them until the 4th quarter. This is not the domination I would expect when I examine the discrepancy in skill levels between the two conference foes.

            And let’s not forget the committee that will select the teams for the playoff. The human element is back in play. I know there are supposed to be no ulterior motives or agendas but people are fallible and I guarantee that possible revenue earnings will favor the schools with the chance to travel well. That will also favor their position in the polls. In essence, the meritocracy that is supposed to happen is a charade. The committee will make mistakes and I believe there will continue to be a conference bias.

             The only possible cure for this inevitable debacle in sportsmanship and fair competition is the institution of a 8 team playoff. An 8 team playoff would give the average joe bullshiter like myself and the well paid pundits on sports stations throughout the nation something to talk about. It’s also the only possible solution I see to creating equity in a system that seems to be devoid of integrity or credibility.



1 Comments:

Blogger Unknown said...

The problem you get with expanding the playoffs is the same thing we're seeing with March Madness, though. There will always be teams that are perceived as snubs, even with a 68-team tournament, so at what point do you stop expanding? 8 teams already increases the "postseason" to 3 weeks, so making it any longer would require a longer season and more games.

Maybe 6 would be a reasonable compromise? Like the NFL does it, where #1 and #2 in a BCS-like calculation get a week off and the other 4 duke it out. Sure, you'll get people complaining about the unfair advantage of having a week off, but at least that way teams have an incentive to play well throughout the year, instead of backing into a playoff system with no real advantage.

Or, better yet - 7 game season. Everyone who wins game 7 gets thrown into a pot, and the next week's matchups are drawn, along with a location (maybe neutral, maybe not). First 2 weeks are intra-conference (if possible), followed by inter-conference matchups until by about week 14, there are only 2 teams left. That's your championship. The eliminated teams can continue playing through week 13 (Championship Week) to get to 14 (Bowl Week), but they're out of the running, regardless of who they beat. This effectively makes everyone eligible for the championship, and you'll see good money flowing to lesser schools as bigger teams jockey for a favorable week 7 matchup.

Of course, I also take issue with your taking issue with mathematicians deciding participants rather than polls. Polls are a good way to display your bias to begin with, so adding a calculation to that only levels it out. It basically decreases the importance of what people may think of your team, and increases the importance of how your team performed. I'm not sure that's such a bad thing. If anything, the BCS calculations still have too much pollster bias in them.

7:19 PM  

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